Millet production worldwide has seen a notable decline over the past two years, driven by reduced output in key producing regions like India or Niger. However, in Europe, the picture is more varied. Poland has seen an increase in its millet sowing area for 2024. Meanwhile, Ukraine, Europe’s largest millet producer, faces substantial setbacks with reduced sowing and production forecasts.
In this Millet Market Update, we will focus on the current situation in Poland and explore developments in Ukraine. Stay tuned for a detailed update on production trends, pricing pressures, and market insights.
Current Millet Market Situation in Poland
Poland’s millet production area has expanded in 2024, rising to 23 000 hectares, up from 17 000 hectares in 2023—a notable 35% increase year-on-year. This growth contrasts with the overall decrease in Poland’s grain production, which is expected to be down by 3.5% in 2024. The increase in millet production brings some optimism in an otherwise tough grain market, especially as most other crops are seeing declines.
Although the sowing area has increased, we are still awaiting official harvest yield figures. Preliminary forecasts suggest that, if weather conditions remain favorable, the millet harvest in Poland could exceed last year’s levels and reach between 35 000 and 45000 tons. The increase in millet cultivation in Poland is a response to declining production in recent years, as farmers look to recover from previous seasons and lower yields.
However, even though millet production is likely to increase in this season, it is not expected to significantly impact market pricing. Poland remains partially dependent on cheaper Ukrainian supplies, a factor that will continue to shape the local market. As a result, despite the growth in domestic production, external pricing pressures are likely to keep millet prices stable or even low in the near term, depending on market demand during the 2024/2025 season.
Millet Production in Ukraine 2013-2023
| Year | Planted Area (1000 ha) | Production (1000 tons) | Yield (ton/ha) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 76 | 98 | 1.30 |
| 2014 | 101 | 168 | 1.80 |
| 2015 | 112 | 213 | 1.91 |
| 2016 | 104 | 189 | 1.82 |
| 2017 | 56 | 81 | 1.45 |
| 2018 | 50 | 78 | 1.55 |
| 2019 | 89 | 161 | 1.81 |
| 2020 | 160 | 243 | 1.62 |
| 2021 | 77 | 184 | 2.40 |
| 2022 | 44 | 101 | 2.30 |
| 2023 | 79 | 179 | 2.27 |
Millet Production Declines in Ukraine
Ukraine remains the largest millet producer in Europe, but its 2024 outlook is less optimistic. In 2023, Ukraine harvested nearly 180 000 tons of millet from 79 500 hectares, with an average yield of 2.27 tons per hectare. However, 2024 has seen a reduction in the sown area to almost 70 000 hectares, and the current average yield stands at 1.93 tons per hectare. The total expected millet production for 2024 in Ukraine is estimated to be between 120 000 and 130 000 tons—a heavy decrease of around 40 000 – 50 000 tons compared to last year.
This significant drop in Ukraine’s millet production is mainly due to declining selling prices in the 2023/2024 season, as well as unfavorable weather conditions. Ukrainian farmers are also in a difficult position due to the ongoing war. Since agricultural products are Ukraine’s most important export product for the country, farmers need to prioritize cultivating grains or oilseeds that offer higher profitability.
Millet, which wasn’t profitable in the last season, has therefore seen a decline in sowing this year as farmers shift to more lucrative crops to support their livelihoods during these challenging times. Additionally, from June 5, 2024, the EU introduced export quotas on several agricultural products, including millet, which were quickly exhausted. Consequently, all volumes of millet (and products derived from millet) is a subject to duties, increasing final prices of the product.
Lower Millet Prices and Demand in 2023/2024
Millet and its products have seen persistently low prices throughout 2023/2024 season. One of the primary drivers behind this trend is the declining demand for millet in European markets. Despite the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) declaring 2023 as the “International Year of Millets,” it has not resulted in a noticeable increase in consumption across Europe.
Decreased consumer interest in Europe, coupled with surplus stock in key producing regions, has driven down both prices and profitability for millet farmers. This outcome is in stark contrast to the expectations that the FAO’s focus on millet would boost demand and revive the popularity of this nutritious grain.
Organic Millet Production Predictions in 2024
Poland and Ukraine remain the top producers of organic millet in Europe. In 2024, Poland is optimistic about its organic millet production, expecting a better harvest than last year. With increased availability, Polish producers are hopeful that demand will rebound, allowing them to supply larger volumes to their traditional export markets in Western Europe.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is also working to strengthen its organic millet production. However, the country faced challenges such as tropane alkaloids contamination, which was a significant issue in the previous seasons. Addressing these concerns will be essential for Ukraine to enhance its organic millet output and remain competitive in the European market. Despite these hurdles, both countries are crucial to the supply of organic millet in Europe, and their efforts will shape the sector’s future.
Millet Market Summary
The millet market in 2024 shows mixed signals. While Poland is seeing a notable increase in its sown area and production, its overall output remains relatively small compared to Ukraine, which typically produces four times more millet. However, Ukraine’s 2024 outlook is less optimistic due to lower sowing areas and yields, driven by price declines, weaker demand, and the war’s impact on farmers.
Organic millet production remains small but stable in both Poland and Ukraine, with prices unlikely to decrease. However, export quotas on Ukrainian agricultural goods into the EU pose additional challenges for millet exporters, especially given the current weak demand across European markets.
Source:
- “Najnowsze szacunki zbiorów zbóż w Polsce według KE” available at:
https://www.agrofakt.pl/najnowsze-szacunki-zbiorow-zboz-w-polsce-wedlug-ke/ (accessed on September 11, 2024) - “Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine summarized the results of the spring sowing campaign” available at: https://www.apk-inform.com/en/news/1541925 (accessed on September 11, 2024)
- “Parliament reach a deal to renew EU’s autonomous trade measures” available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/03/20/ukraine-council-and-parliament-reach-a-deal-to-renew-eu-s-autonomous-trade-measures/ (accessed on September 11, 2024)
- “Tropane alkaloids. Prevention of contamination in organic crops” available at: https://www.fibl.org/fileadmin/documents/shop/1711-tropane-alkaloids.pdf (accessed on September 11, 2024)
