The European millet market has entered a tense phase. Smaller harvests in Ukraine and Poland were expected this season due to reduced sowing areas, yet the market reaction came later than anticipated. Today the key challenge is no longer only raw material availability, but also execution and delivery lead times.
Since December, conventional hulled millet prices in Europe have increased sharply and have now exceeded €800 per tonne FCA producing country, representing a rise of more than €300 within just a 2-3 month period. At the same time, buyers increasingly report longer delivery timelines as processors struggle to keep up with demand due to tightening raw material supply in key producing countries.
Ukraine millet harvest 2025: smaller production
Ukraine remains the key origin for the global millet market and continues to play a central role in shaping regional availability. For many European buyers, Ukrainian supply often sets the initial signal for how tight or comfortable the market will be during the season.
In 2025, however, the millet harvest confirmed a smaller production footprint compared to stronger years. Total production reached approximately 62.1 thousand tonnes, with millet planted on around 35.8 thousand hectares. Average yields were estimated at 1.74 tonnes per hectare.
By comparison, millet production in Ukraine reached around 78 thousand tonnes in 2024, meaning that the 2025 harvest declined by roughly 20% year-on-year. Such a reduction significantly tightens the market balance in a sector where total available volumes remain relatively limited.
While these volumes may appear modest in absolute terms, they are highly relevant for the European market where millet supply remains relatively concentrated. Even relatively small changes in Ukrainian production can significantly influence the regional balance between supply and demand.
In practice, this means that when export flows accelerate early in the season, availability can tighten faster than many buyers initially expect. This is particularly visible in years with smaller harvests, when the market becomes more sensitive to both logistics and processing capacity.
Related article: Millet Market Update – September 2024
Millet Production in Ukraine 2015-2025
| Year | Planted Area (1000 ha) | Production (1000 tons) | Yield (ton/ha) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 112 | 213 | 1.91 |
| 2016 | 104 | 189 | 1.82 |
| 2017 | 56 | 81 | 1.45 |
| 2018 | 50 | 78 | 1.55 |
| 2019 | 89 | 161 | 1.81 |
| 2020 | 160 | 243 | 1.62 |
| 2021 | 77 | 184 | 2.40 |
| 2022 | 44 | 101 | 2.30 |
| 2023 | 79 | 180 | 2.26 |
| 2024 | 92 | 161 | 1.76 |
| 2025 | 36 | 62 | 1.74 |
Poland millet production 2025: an important origin for the EU market
Poland remains the most important millet origin within the European Union and plays a particularly relevant role for buyers looking for short-lead deliveries inside the EU market.
According to the latest available data, millet cultivation area in Poland reached approximately 17 030 hectares in 2025. While Poland does not compete with larger producers globally, its role within Europe is strategically important due to geographical proximity and well-developed processing capacity.
For many European buyers, Poland often becomes the closest operational origin when supply from neighbouring regions tightens. Shorter transport distances reduce logistics complexity and allow processors to deliver more flexible lead times compared with longer supply chains.
Russia millet production: large producer with limited EU role
Russia remains one of the larger producers of millet globally and continues to maintain significant production volumes in the region. According to recent market estimates, millet production in Russia reached approximately 352 thousand tonnes, while overall coarse grain production, including oats, remained broadly stable at around 3.8 million tonnes.
Despite these relatively large volumes, Russia plays only a limited role in supplying the European market. Additional export duties and trade restrictions continue to reduce the competitiveness of Russian millet for EU buyers.
As a result, most European importers continue to focus primarily on Ukraine and Poland when securing millet supply. While Russian millet may remain competitively priced on paper, trade barriers and logistical considerations mean that it is rarely considered a practical origin for European buyers.
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Organic millet market: stable growth led by Ukraine and Poland
The organic millet market in Europe remains relatively small compared to the conventional segment. Ukraine and Poland are the main origins supplying certified organic millet to the European market, with production increasing by roughly 10% year-on-year. Demand remains concentrated primarily within Europe, and price volatility is significantly lower than in the conventional market.
However, the current season has proven more challenging for some buyers. Quality concerns related to tropane alkaloids in Ukrainian origin and limited organic millet availability in Poland have made sourcing more selective.
Despite these challenges, price increases in the organic segment remain moderate. Current prices are slightly above €1.15-1.20 per kg FCA, representing an increase of roughly €0.10 per kg compared to previous years. This contrasts with the significantly stronger price movements observed in the conventional market.
Millet Market Summary
Millet in early 2026 follows a clear pattern. Ukraine sets the European volume signal, while Poland remains the closest EU-origin option for short-lead coverage. In my view, the European millet market has entered a tighter phase due to smaller footprints in both Ukraine and Poland. Once prices started to move towards the end of 2025, the adjustment became much faster, with conventional hulled millet prices rising sharply and buyers increasingly facing longer delivery lead times.
Looking ahead, the key factor for the coming months will remain raw material availability in the region. In relatively small markets such as millet, even moderate changes in production can quickly influence prices and supply conditions. While the conventional segment has become significantly tighter, the organic market remains more stable, although sourcing has become more selective due to quality issues and limited raw material availability.
Source:
- https://www.apk-inform.com/en/news/1552345?utm_source
- https://rejestrupraw.arimr.gov.pl/#
- https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/rasff-window/screen/notification/818417?utm_source
- https://www.ages.at/en/human/nutrition-food/residues-contaminants-from-a-to-z/tropane-alkaloids?utm_source
- https://forkagro.com/incubator/v/urozhaj-prosa-sokratilsya-v-2025-godu-chto-zhdet-proizvodstvo-pshena-analiz-dannyh-i-prognozy-ab-centra-na-rynke-agroproma-do-konca-2026-goda
