The European Sunflower market faces significant disruptions as heat waves and droughts have slashed yields across key producing countries, leading to a sharp decline in production forecasts for 2024. Prices have surged since August, with Sunflower Kernel prices now hitting highest levels in almost two seasons.
Beyond supply shortages, lower yields are also affecting the quality of black sunflower seeds, with oil content averaging 36-38%, well below the usual standard of 44%. This drop in oil content is driving further cost increases for processors. Stay informed with our latest Sunflower Market Update – on how these challenges will shape the market in the months ahead.
The current situation in Ukraine’s sunflower market is quite concerning. This year’s extreme heat and droughthave really taken a toll, pushing the average yield down from 2.38 tons per hectare in 2023 to just 2.10 tons in 2024, marking a 12% decline. Many farmers are feeling the pinch, and with limited sunflower seed supplies, processors are struggling to keep up.
2024 sunflowers are expected to yield less than in previous years
Bulgaria: Rising Costs and Limited Supply of Sunflower
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) anticipates a decrease in oilseed production for the 2024/2025 season due to exceptionally hot and dry weather in July and August. Although the sunflower cultivation area is expected to increase from 900 000 hectares to 920 000 hectares, production is projected at 1.77 million tons, down from 2.14 million tons in the 2023/2024 season. This decline is attributed to a forecasted lower average yield of 1.84 tons per hectare, compared to 2.05 tons/ha last year.
Overall, sunflower harvests are expected to be 5% lower than last year, marking the lowest production level since 2013. Meanwhile, Sunflower Kernel prices have surged from a stable range of €750-800 per ton last season to over €900 per ton FCA Bulgaria recently, with expectations of further increases.
Market is tough, sunflower seeds availability remains low, everyone fighting for black sunflower. Prices for SFK are increasing, we don’t expect this year to be easy. Demand is good, customers need to get used to prices now, as they (customers) still wait for (prices) 700€ FCA or lower – says leading sunflower kernels exporter.
Despite this, Bulgaria remains a critical player in the sunflower oil market, thanks to its significant crushing capacity, which exceeds 3 million tonnes. In past years, Bulgaria has been the largest European importer of sunflower seeds, driven by its oil crushers and kernel producers. Although domestic production hovers around 2 million tonnes, Bulgaria consistently imports sunflower seeds to meet excess demand, primarily from Ukraineand Romania.
Sunflower Production: Romania’s Growth and Challenges
In 2024, Romanian farmers expanded sunflower plantings to 1.32 million hectares, up from 1.08 million hectares last year. While the previous harvest reached 2.28 million tons, early predictions indicated this year’s yield could be as high as 2.41 million tons. However, the severe droughts and extreme heat experienced in July may complicate these projections. Farmers had anticipated an early harvest by about three weeks, as the sunflowers were ready for picking. Many are now expressing concerns about yields, facing challenges similar to those in Ukraine and Bulgaria
It’s worth noting that Romania was the EU leader in sunflower production in 2022, producing 2.07 million tons. In 2023, it was briefly overtaken by France, which narrowly surpassed Romania. However, this year, Romania is again poised to reclaim its position as the largest sunflower producer in the EU. Additionally, in 2023/2024 season Romania became the leading importer of sunflower oil from Moldova, marking a significant shift, as Moldova’s exports to Russia ceased entirely that year.
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Sunflower Quality Concerns and Price Impacts
One of the key factors that could drive sunflower prices even higher in the 2024/2025 season is the deteriorating quality of this year’s sunflower seeds crop across the Black Sea region. The severe drought this summer has significantly impacted the sunflower harvest. Initial reports from the first harvested fields show an 8 to 12% decrease in yield (vs 2023) throughout the producing countries, indicating serious concerns about seed quality.
The oil content in sunflower seeds (from 2024) is well below the usual standard, averaging 36-38% compared to the standard value of 44%
This decline in oil content will have a considerable impact on prices, as processors base their purchasing decisions on seed quality. As pressing facilities encounter higher costs due to the need to press more seeds to extract the same amount of oil, prices could rise further, especially if seed quality issues are widespread across the region.
EU Organic Sunflower Production
Romania has firmly established itself as the leading producer of organic sunflower seeds in the European Union, followed by France and Italy. In 2019, Romania produced over 60 000 tons of organic sunflower seeds, marking it as the EU’s top producer. However, organic sunflower seeds remain a small fraction of Romania’s overall production, which exceeds 2 million tons annually. Despite this, the organic sunflower market continues to grow in popularity in Romania, with an average annual increase of 5 000 hectares each year, from 2017 to 2019, driven by rising consumer demand for organic products.
Yet, ensuring a sufficient supply of raw material for the organic market remains a persistent challenge, and this year is no exception. Regular organic sunflower kernel processors are already struggling to secure enough stocks since the beginning of the season. Prices have surged as well, with Organic Sunflower Kernels now being offered at prices 10-15% higher than last season, reflecting the tightening supply and increased competition for available stocks.
Harvesting sunflower seeds – Sunflower market update september 2024
Sunflower Market Update Summary
The European sunflower market is facing big pressure in 2024, as heatwaves and drought have sharply reduced yields in key producers like Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria. Ukrainian output has dropped by 8.8%, partly driving sunflower kernel prices to their highest levels in two years.
Additionally, lower-than-average oil content in sunflower seeds is further increasing costs for oil processors, while raw material supplies remain tight at this point in the season.
In the organic sector, Romania leads the EU in production, but kernel producers are struggling to source enough raw material. The market is scrambling for additional supply, immediately driving a 10-15% price increase for organic sunflower kernels compared to 2023.
“Export of sunflower oil from Ukraine in August may be the lowest in the last 2 years” available at: https://www.apk-inform.com/en/news/1543440 (accessed on September 26th, 2024).
For many years, together with his small team, he has been boosting the sales of Polish family companies that supply food ingredients (mainly organic) to different foreign markets. His role involves creating new business projects and managing sales. He loves visiting suppliers and farmers during his travels, gathering valuable information that he shares through his articles.
