With the 2024 pea harvest nearly finished in the biggest growing regions, Canada and Russia are set to play key roles in shaping the market. In this update, we’ll look at their final production numbers, export destinations, and price trends, comparing this season to 2023.
We’ll also explore if major buyers like China and India will keep up strong demand and examine how Ukraine and the EU fit into the bigger picture. Lastly, we’ll look into the EU’s organic pea market, and what’s expected for the 2024/2025 season.
Canada Pea Production and Export Forecast for 2024
Canada, second largest producer and exporter of peas, is set for a significant production increase in 2024. The country’s harvest is estimated to reach 3.16 million metric tons, a 21% rise from 2.61 million metric tons in 2023. This increase is primarily due to expanded acreage and improved yields in key growing regions. With domestic consumption remaining low, the majority of the increased production will be available for export.
Canada is expected to increase pea production for the 2024/2025 season. Exports may not grow as much and could even stay at the same level or even drop.
China, a key market for Canadian peas, is expected to maintain purchases. However, recent changes have impacted Canada’s position. Last season, Russia became China’s largest pea supplier, pushing Canada to second place. Canada’s share of Chinese imports dropped to 44.7%. This shift occurred because Russian peas were $40–$50 per ton cheaper, making them more attractive to China’s feed sector.
China purchased 657 000 tonnes of peas during the first half of the calendar year, 22% less than the same period in the previous year. This drop reflects the overall slowdown in China’s demand for Canadian peas. However, there was a positive news for Canadian exports coming from India. The country’s decision to lift import tariffs has provided a significant boost to Canada’s pea exports in the first half of 2024.
Furthermore, India has extended its duty-free import window for yellow peas until December 31st 2024, creating additional opportunities for Canada’s pulse sector. In the 2023-24 season, India accounted for more than 45% of Canadian pea exports, making this extension an important opportunity for the exporters.
Russia Pea Production and Export Forecast for 2024
Russia has become the largest global producer and exporter of peas, surpassing Canada. In 2023, country produced approximately 4.71 million metric tons of peas. While producers expected production to remain stable in 2024, a decrease in yield could affect total output (official data for this year’s crop is still pending). With domestic consumption around 1.5 million metric tons, Russia directs the majority of its pea production to export markets.
Effectively, they exported around 3 million metric tons of peas in total during the 2023/24 season. China received 1.13 million metric tons of that, securing a 49.1% share of the total pea import. This allowed Russia to surpass Canada as the leading pea exporter to China. Canada’s pea export share fell to 44.6%, a significant drop from its previous dominance of nearly 95% of China’s pea imports.
Additionally, Russia has overtaken Canada as the leading supplier of yellow peas to India. Canada, which once controlled over 90% of the Indian market, has seen its share decline as Russia increased its presence. Russia’s competitive pricing, with yellow peas priced at $425 per tonne for October-November delivery, compared to Canada’s $460, along with the option to settle payments in Indian rupees, has fueled its growing market share.
In the 2023/24 season, after these two top buyers, the other leading pea importers were Spain (385 000 tonnes), Turkey (375 000 tonnes), and Latvia (225 000 tonnes).
Experts are uncertain about the exact volume of peas Russia will export in 2024/2025. However, China and India will remain the primary focus markets. Russia could maintain or even exceed last season’s export volume to China, but this depends on China’s import activity and internal production capacity requirements.
Demand from key markets like India and Pakistan may not raise prices significantly. Major pea producers are increasing production in 2024, leading to more peas available for sale. Russian traders estimate exports could reach 2.5 million tonnes in the 2024/2025 season.
Pea Production and Trade in Europe in 2024
The EU is expected to produce just under 2 million tons of peas in 2024. The EU-27 and the UK have seen steady growth in pea production, with France, Poland, the UK, and Lithuania playing key roles. Ukraine, the second-largest pea producer in Europe, also contributes significantly to the region’s overall output.
France, the largest producer in the region, reduced its pea acreage to 164,000 hectares in 2024, marking an 18% decline compared to 2023. Production in 2023 was 488,000 tons, but this year, due to heavy rains and adverse weather conditions, yields are expected to be lower, impacting the final result for 2024.
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Ukraine significantly increased its pea area in 2024, with peas harvested from 212 000 hectares, up 40% from 2023. However, yields were slightly lower, at 2.19 tonnes per hectare, down from last year’s 2.46 tonnes per hectare, bringing total production to 465 300 tons.
Poland also saw an increase in pea production in 2024, adding 40 000 hectares, bringing the total area to 158 600 hectares. This resulted in 36.6% increase from the previous year’s 116 000 ha. The average yield was 3.11 tonnes per hectare in 2024, though this was lower than the previous year’s 3.93 tonnes per hectare. Final production numbers are yet to be published by official statistical office.
Spain, Germany, and Belgium are the largest importers of peas within the EU. Spain imports over 215 000 tonnes, while Germany and Belgium are projected to each import approximately 160 000 tonnes. Import trends continue to rise in these countries as the EU aims to increase self-sufficiency in protein-rich crops, driving demand for peas across the region. This growth is further fueled by the rising demand for pea protein, supported by the establishment of new pea protein production facilities.
Organic Pea Market in Europe
Europe’s organic pea production is diverse, with France as the largest EU producer, having cultivated around 7 000 hectares of organic peas in 2023. This resulted in production of between 15 000 and 16 000 tons over 2022 and 2023.
However, the 2024 planting season faced challenges due to heavy rains, which disrupted sowing and led to a reduction of organic pea crop. As a result, France is expected to produce fewer organic peas in 2024 due to the overall decline in acreage.
Elsewhere in the EU, organic pea cultivation remains rather fragmented. Apart from France, production in countries such as Poland, Hungary, Italy, and Lithuania is unstable. Despite rising demand, a significant portion of organic peas continues to be imported from Canada. Highlighting the gap in domestic supply and the ongoing reliance on imports to meet European market needs.
Pea Market Summary
The global pea market in 2024 continues to be dominated by Canada and Russia in both production and exports. Canada has forecast a 21% increase in production, possibly reaching 3.16 million metric tons. However, its share in exports to key markets like China or India is declining. Meanwhile, Russia has overtaken Canada as the largest global producer and exporter of peas.
With China and India remaining as key markets for this two exporters. Strong competition is expected to grow in the 2024/2025 season. The big question is whether India and China will continue their purchases at the same rate throughout the season? Especially with predictions suggesting a surplus of peas on the market.
It is important to consider how Chinese pea protein exports market will develop. Recently, they have been subject to anti-dumping investigations by the U.S. and Canada. Additionally, the plant-based alternative market in China has slowed down, after a period of rapid growth between 2019 and 2022. This may further affect the demand for peas and lead to a slowdown in exports.
Source:
- “Production of principal field crops, November 2023” available at:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231204/dq231204a-eng.htm (accessed on November 14th, 2024). - “Прогноз сборов гороха в России в 2024 году” available at: https://ab-centre.ru/news/prognoz-sborov-goroha-v-rossii-v-2024-godu (accessed on November 14th, 2024).
- “China buys fewer peas” available at:
https://www.producer.com/news/china-buys-fewer-peas/ (accessed on November 14th, 2024). - “Canadian yellow peas moving to India, but for how long?” available at:
https://marketsfarm.com/canadian-yellow-peas-moving-to-india-but-for-how-long/ (accessed on November 14th, 2024). - “Russia overtakes Canada as top peas exporter to China” available at:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-overtakes-canada-top-peas-exporter-china-2024-07-09/ (accessed on November 14th, 2024). - “Russia Surpasses Canada as India’s Leading Yellow Peas Supplier by Amit Gupta”: available at: https://investmentguruindia.com/newsdetail/russia-surpasses-canada-as-india-s-leading-yellow-peas-supplier-by-amit-gupta-kedia-advisory854872 (accessed on November 14th, 2024).
- “EU Peas” available at: https://agpulseanalytica.com/market-insights/eu-peas#:~:text=Our%20estimations%20that%20the%20pea,amount%20to%20around%20200%20KMT. (accessed on November 14th, 2024).
