The chia market going into the 2025/2026 season was shaped more by expectations than by the actual supply situation. Early positive signals from the 2025 harvest were quickly replaced by weather-driven uncertainty in South America, pushing a more risk-focused narrative across the market. In practice, this translated into a sharp market reaction.
Prices increased for almost 1 €/kg within a few months, and for a period the market was clearly tight, with coverage becoming increasingly challenging for buyers. However, as the season progressed, the situation stabilized and supply proved more resilient than initially expected. In this update, we focus on what changed after the 2025 season, starting with Paraguay and Bolivia, followed by global sourcing dynamics and the organic segment.
Paraguay: Global leader with record supply, but growing pressure
Paraguay remains the benchmark origin for chia. However, 2025/2026 season showed how quickly market perception can diverge from actual supply. Despite initial weather concerns, Paraguay exported more than 80 000 tons of chia seeds in 2025, and reached more than 70 destination markets. The country remains the world’s leading chia exporter, supplying a wide range of destinations globally, with the US, Asia and Europe as the key demand markets.
For buyers, even temporary uncertainty was enough to tighten availability and push prices sharply higher. Going into 2026, much will depend on how the new sowing campaign develops and whether weather conditions remain supportive.
At the same time, Paraguay will need to remain competitive on pricing. The market is no longer fully dependent on one region, and buyers now have alternative options in India, and Uganda. As production in these countries continues to expand, they are increasingly used as a fallback when South American supply tightens or prices move too aggressively. There are also early signals that Spain is exploring chia production, which could eventually offer European buyers a more local and potentially more stable sourcing option.
Bolivia: Rebound in supply, and a changing demand map
Bolivia remains the second key South American origin in the chia market. The 2025 season brought a strong rebound after a very weak 2024, with production increasing to around 15,100 tonnes compared to just 1,080 tonnes a year earlier.
What matters more than volume is market access. The opening of trade flows to China changes the demand structure and creates additional competition for available supply, with close to 50% of Bolivian exports now directed to China, while the remaining volumes are distributed across South American markets and Mexico. This becomes especially relevant when South American supply is tight or when EU buyers are more price-sensitive. In practice, volumes can shift between destinations depending on price and timing.
Interest in chia remains strong among farmers in Bolivia, which creates a solid base for further expansion in 2026. The key will be how the new sowing campaign develops and how much area is allocated to chia. This will ultimately determine how much volume becomes available to the export market.
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Global Chia Market: Still driven by South American supply
The 2025 season confirmed that while the market is gradually diversifying, it still depends heavily on South America. Paraguay, Bolivia and Argentina and to some extent Mexico remain the core supply base for chia seeds.
Alternative origins such as India and Uganda are becoming more visible, especially in tighter market conditions, but they do not compete in scale. Their role is to support the market when supply is uncertain or when prices move too aggressively.
In practice, this means that price direction is still defined by what happens in South America. Weather conditions, harvest timing and overall availability in this region continue to set the tone for the global chia market.
Related article: Chia Seeds Market Update – January 2025
Organic chia: demand is strong, but supply is selective and compliance-driven
Organic chia is not a niche category in Europe. It remains an important part of the market, especially in countries where organic and health-conscious consumption is well developed.
Paraguay continues to be the leading supplier, followed by Bolivia and increasingly Uganda and India, although consistency outside the main South American origins remains a challenge. The organic segment follows a different market logic than conventional.
Availability is limited not only by volume, but also by compliance with strict requirements, including pesticide residues, heavy metals and other requirements. This season brought multiple issues in that area, reducing the amount of product that could be considered truly compliant. As a result, prices for organic chia moved first and remain at elevated levels, with clear signs that available stock is already tightening ahead of the next harvest.
Chia market summary
The 2025/2026 season showed that the chia market is highly sensitive to supply expectations, but more resilient than initially expected. Weather concerns in South America pushed prices sharply higher and tightened availability for a period, but strong performance from Paraguay and a rebound in Bolivia allowed the market to stabilize and cover demand.
Looking into 2026, the key drivers remain unchanged. South America will continue to set the direction, especially through planting decisions and weather conditions. At the same time, the market is gradually diversifying, but pricing is still decided in South America, while in the organic segment availability remains limited by compliance rather than volume.
Source:
- https://www.mic.gov.py/paraguay-afianza-liderazgo-global-en-chia-y-proyecta-mayor-industrializacion-del-mani/
- https://anapobolivia.org/produccion-de-granos-en-2025-llega-a-56-mm-de-toneladas-y-anapo-preve-impulso-con-la-liberacion-plena-de-exportaciones/
- https://www.cbi.eu/market-information/grains-pulses-oilseeds/chia-seeds/market-potential
- https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/chia-seeds-crop-damage-south-america.n35884.html
- https://en.mercopress.com/2025/04/21/bolivia-sends-first-chia-shipment-to-china?utm_source=
